McCain vs. Obama. The battle for the Latino vote
Will Arizona Latinos go Blue or Red? The answer may decide who sits in the White House
Marty Perez’s vote for president will likely come down to who he believes will handle thorny international issues better. As a registered Republican, he’s leaning towards Sen. John McCain but it could come down to a last-second decision.
Alicia Jacobo, 69, says she’ll vote for Barack Obama even though she supported Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primary. She believes the country needs to “go beyond tinkering around the edges” when it comes to national policy changes.
Both are among the 400,000 Arizona Latinos expected to cast their votes this November. It seems like a big number, but historically Latinos make up less than one-fifth of the state’s voters.
Still, neither candidate wants to be the one who comes up short among Latino voters. According to an analysis by the Tomas Rivera Center, it would only take a 3.8 percent shift in allegiances among Latino voters to create a one percent advantage for one of the presidential candidates. In a close race – George W. Bush won the state’s electoral votes with 51 percent of the popular vote in 2000 – that could be enough to tip the scales one way or another.
The high-profile campaign initiatives of Obama and McCain demonstrate that they are keenly aware of that possibility and are doing everything they can to win the Latino vote.
The messages being tailored to attract Latino voters have been a complicated affair for both sides. If they talk too much about immigration and reforming the system, they tend to anger other segments of the electorate. Meanwhile, polls are finding that immigration has dropped down as a hot-button issue for all voters but it still remains a high priority for Latino voters.
“For Latinos, like everybody else, the economy is a big factor and immigration has continued to be a big concern,” says John Garcia, a political science professor at the University of Arizona. “Neither has been able to highlight or propose what should be done. Given the volatility of the issue, they may be better off steering clear of the issue other than talking about it in terms of securing the border.”
If that happens, it would be a disservice to Arizona Latinos, who still rate the immigration issue as critical, although not more important than the economy, the Iraq War and energy prices.
Another energizing element for the state’s Latinos could be the “Joe Arpaio” factor. The Maricopa County Sheriff’s crime suppression sweeps in largely Latino neighborhoods has angered substantial segments of the Latino population and could energize them to register and vote. Many of the harshest anti-immigrant measures are coming from Republicans such as Arpaio, state legislator Russell Pearce, and Randy Pullen, chairman of the state Republican Party. It could be an advantage for Obama, some say.
“The vitriol and hate being spewed has created fear in all Hispanics,” says Rodolfo Espino, a political science professor at Arizona State University.
So the question arises, Will Arizona Latinos be voting for Obama or against Republicans?
Another edge for Obama was Gov. Janet Napolitano’s early support for the senator from Illinois. Napolitano, a Democratic governor, has repeatedly vetoed anti-immigrant legislation pushed by the Republican majority in the state Legislature. This has made her popular with Latinos. She has also been mentioned as a possible member of Obama’s Cabinet if he wins.
PROP. 200 factor
If these factors do motivate more Latinos to vote, they will have to contend with new voter identification laws that could make it more difficult to get their vote counted. Under Proposition 200 – enacted in 2004 – more identification will be required for voters who go to the polls. Espino says preliminary research already shows it is having a disproportionate negative impact on Latinos.
“Latinos will have to work harder to know what is required and to make sure their vote is counted,” he says. “This law requires more identification if you go to the polls. But it doesn’t require more if you vote through the mail.”
With Hispanics moving into the ranks of small business owners, both campaigns are making it a point to talk about small business issues and what can be done to strengthen the business climate.
